Interpretation of IPCC AR6 on buildings北大核心CSCD     

白泉  胡姗  谷立静 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(5):557-566

IPCC于2022年4月正式发布了第六次评估报告(AR6)第三工作组(WGⅢ)报告《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》,该报告以已发布的第一和第二工作组报告作为基础,评估了各领域减缓气候变化的进展。报告的第九章建筑章节系统全面地评估了全球建筑领域的温室气体排放现状、趋势和驱动因素,综述并评估了建筑减缓气候变化的措施、潜力、成本和政策。报告主要结论认为,全球建筑领域有可能在2050年实现温室气体净零排放,但如果政策措施执行不力,将有可能在建筑领域形成长达几十年的高碳锁定效应。报告的主要结论将成为全球建筑领域应对气候变化行动的重要参考,对于我国建筑领域实现碳达峰、碳中和目标也有非常重要的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

Fengyun-4 Geostationary Satellite-Based Solar Energy Nowcasting System and Its Application in North China     

Chunlin HUANG  Hongrong SHI  Ling GAO  Mengqi LIU  Qixiang CHEN  Disong FU  Shu WANG  Yuan YUAN  Xiang′ao XIA 《大气科学进展》2022,39(8):1316-1328

Surface solar irradiance (SSI) nowcasting (0–3 h) is an effective way to overcome the intermittency of solar energy and to ensure the safe operation of grid-connected solar power plants. In this study, an SSI estimate and nowcasting system was established using the near-infrared channel of Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite. The system is composed of two key components: The first is a hybrid SSI estimation method combining a physical clear-sky model and an empirical cloudy-sky model. The second component is the SSI nowcasting model, the core of which is the derivation of the cloud motion vector (CMV) using the block-matching method. The goal of simultaneous estimation and nowcasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) is fulfilled. The system was evaluated under different sky conditions using SSI measurements at Xianghe, a radiation station in the North China Plain. The results show that the accuracy of GHI estimation is higher than that of DNI estimation, with a normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) of 22.4% relative to 45.4%. The nRMSE of forecasting GHI and DNI at 30–180 min ahead varied within 25.1%–30.8% and 48.1%–53.4%, respectively. The discrepancy of SSI estimation depends on cloud occurrence frequency and shows a seasonal pattern, being lower in spring–summer and higher in autumn–winter. The FY-4A has great potential in supporting SSI nowcasting, which promotes the development of photovoltaic energy and the reduction of carbon emissions in China. The system can be improved further if calibration of the empirical method is improved.  相似文献   

The Synergism between Methanogens and Methanotrophs and the Nature of their Contributions to the Seasonal Variation of Methane Fluxes in a Wetland: The Case of Dajiuhu Subalpine Peatland     

Luwen WANG  Jiwen GE  Liang FENG  Yaoyao LIU  Yu LI  Jiumei WANG  Xiang XIAO  Zhiqi ZHANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(8):1375-1385

Wetland ecosystems are the most important natural methane (CH₄) sources, whose fluxes periodically fluctuate. Methanogens (methane producers) and methanotrophs (methane consumers) are considered key factors affecting CH₄ fluxes in wetlands. However, the symbiotic relationship between methanogens and methanotrophs remains unclear. To help close this research gap, we collected and analyzed samples from four soil depths in the Dajiuhu subalpine peatland in January, April, July, and October 2019 and acquired seasonal methane flux data from an eddy covariance (EC) system, and investigated relationships. A phylogenetic molecular ecological networks (pMENs) analysis was used to identify keystone species and the seasonal variations of the co-occurrence patterns of methanogenic and methanotrophic communities. The results indicate that the seasonal variations of the interactions between methanogenic and methanotrophic communities contributed to CH₄ emissions in wetlands. The keystone species discerned by the network analysis also showed their importance in mediating CH₄ fluxes. Methane (CH₄) emissions in wetlands were lowest in spring; during this period, the most complex interactions between microbes were observed, with intense competition among methanogens while methanotrophs demonstrated better cooperation. Reverse patterns manifested themselves in summer when the highest CH₄ flux was observed. Methanoregula formicica was negatively correlated with CH₄ fluxes and occupied the largest ecological niches in the spring network. In contrast, both Methanocella arvoryzae and Methylocystaceae demonstrated positive correlations with CH₄ fluxes and were better adapted to the microbial community in the summer. In addition, soil temperature and nitrogen were regarded as significant environmental factors to CH₄ fluxes. This study was successful in explaining the seasonal patterns and microbial driving mechanisms of CH₄ emissions in wetlands.  相似文献   

Seasonal Variations of CH_4 Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China Are Driven by Agricultural Activities     

Wenjing HUANG  Timothy J. GRIFFIS  Cheng HU  Wei XIAO  Xuhui LEE 《大气科学进展》2021,38(9):1537-1551

Developed regions of the world represent a major atmospheric methane(CH_4) source, but these regional emissions remain poorly constrained. The Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region of China is densely populated(about 16% of China's total population) and consists of large anthropogenic and natural CH_4 sources. Here, atmospheric CH_4 concentrations measured at a 70-m tall tower in the YRD are combined with a scale factor Bayesian inverse(SFBI) modeling approach to constrain seasonal variations in CH_4 emissions. Results indicate that in 2018 agricultural soils(AGS, rice production) were the main driver of seasonal variability in atmospheric CH_4 concentration. There was an underestimation of emissions from AGS in the a priori inventories(EDGAR—Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research v432 or v50), especially during the growing seasons. Posteriori CH_4 emissions from AGS accounted for 39%(4.58 Tg, EDGAR v432) to 47%(5.21 Tg, EDGAR v50) of the total CH_4 emissions. The posteriori natural emissions(including wetlands and water bodies) were1.21 Tg and 1.06 Tg, accounting for 10.1%(EDGAR v432) and 9.5%(EDGAR v50) of total emissions in the YRD in2018. Results show that the dominant factor for seasonal variations in atmospheric concentration in the YRD was AGS,followed by natural sources. In summer, AGS contributed 42%(EDGAR v432) to 64%(EDGAR v50) of the CH_4 concentration enhancement while natural sources only contributed about 10%(EDGAR v50) to 15%(EDGAR v432). In addition, the newer version of the EDGAR product(EDGAR v50) provided more reasonable seasonal distribution of CH_4 emissions from rice cultivation than the old version(EDGAR v432).  相似文献   

对IPCC第六次评估报告中有关干旱变化的解读   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

姜大膀  王晓欣 《大气科学学报》2021,44(5):650-653

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2021年8月发布了第六次评估报告（AR6）自然科学基础卷的决策者摘要,主要对自2013年第五次评估报告（AR5）以来的气候变化科学研究进展进行了系统的评估,并使用新一代气候模式在新的共享社会经济路径情景下对未来气候变化进行了预估。本文基于AR5和AR6相关章节素材,解读了干旱变化的评估结论。  相似文献   

关于复合型极端事件的新认识和启示          下载免费PDF全文

余荣  翟盘茂 《大气科学学报》2021,44(5):645-649

近年来,极端天气气候事件频繁发生,且常常表现为多种事件交织形成的复合型极端事件。为了更好地认识复合型极端事件,IPCC AR6基于现有的新证据评估了复合型极端事件的最新研究成果,并取得一些新认识：扩展了有关复合型极端事件的定义,重点围绕高温干旱复合型极端事件、复合洪水和野火,评估了复合型极端事件的变化特征,探讨了复合型极端事件多因子之间的依赖性,对人类活动的影响进行了归因分析并给出了未来可能的变化。这些评估结果丰富了对复合型极端事件的基本认识。但根据现有的评估可以发现,目前在复合型极端事件发生发展机理认识方面还存在不足;同时,未来仍需进一步完善跨学科跨部门跨区域研究,加强对复合型极端事件形成机理、预估及其对生态系统,经济社会影响风险的评估,提高对区域气候变化的适应能力。  相似文献   

我国台风高发期东海和南海海区GIIRS/FY-4A温度反演廓线精度研究     

黄艺伟  陈淑仪  何敏  张蕾  赵兵科  刘琼  陈勇航  邬贤文 《热带气象学报》2021,37(2):277-288

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料ERA5,对GIIRS/FY-4A温度反演廓线在我国台风高发期东海和南海海区的反演精度进行研究,结果表明:（1）东海海区,无云时GIIRS质量控制0的数据总体RMSE为1.71 K,150~450 hPa高度范围内RMSE小于1 K,450 hPa至近海面RMSE在2 K以内。质量控制1的数据反演精度低且随高度的增加误差增大;有云时,质量控制0和1的反演数据总体RMSE为4.72 K和5.55 K。（2）南海海区,无云时,质量控制0的数据总体RMSE为1.67 K,150~800 hPa范围内RMSE小于1 K,反演精度较东海海区略高。质量控制1的数据RMSE为5.07 K。有云时,质量控制0和1的数据RMSE为6.68 K和7.56 K。（3）随着台风“利奇马”等级加强直至最大等级（海上发展阶段）,GIIRS可信度较高的反演数据量呈现下降趋势,反演台风周边热力结构存在诸多不确定性,需要借助其他资料进行验证。   相似文献   

4D一体化多媒体电子地图集理论方法和技术研究与开发--以《云南省生态环境多媒体电子地图集》为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姜莉莉  齐清文  焦健  何大明 《测绘科学》2006,31(4):37-41

本文首先研究了4D数据一体化多媒体电子地图集的理论和信息机理,包括4D数据在电子地图集中的集成、融合和应用的信息机理,多源多类信息交互认知和传输机理,4D信息的查询、分析、模拟、调控和表达的信息机理,以及4D数据一体化电子地图集的理论框架。其次,文章深入研究和解决了建立4D一体化多媒体电子地图集过程中的诸多技术方法问题,例如多源多类数据的集成和融合、基于主导数据库的多重表达、多媒体地图动画、基于4D数据的信息分析和量算、生态环境信息动态仿真和虚拟表达等。在论文第三部分,文章介绍了作者研发的《云南省生态环境多媒体电子地图集》成果,包括其结构、功能、内容、超媒体链接等方面的设计,查询功能和分析量算功能的开发,以及本电子地图集的分析应用成果。  相似文献   

不同采样率下四分量钻孔应变观测同震变化特征     

唐磊  邱泽华  樊俊屹  罗自浩 《大地测量与地球动力学》2022,42(11):1196-1201

利用湟源台四分量钻孔应变观测的分钟值、1 sps、10 sps和100 sps四种不同采样率的观测数据,通过自检分析、同震应变阶分析和频谱分析等方法研究青海玛多M7.4地震同震变化特征。研究结果表明,分钟采样记录的地震波信息缺失严重,用分钟采样数据进行地震波初动、同震变化幅度等研究将会得到信度较低的结论;采样率越高,记录应变地震波信息的能力越强,但100 sps采样和10 sps采样结果相差不大,10 sps采样已能记录到比较全面的应变地震波信息;同震应变阶的变化性质和变化幅度与采样率无关;未来布设四分量钻孔应变仪时,建议应将采样率至少提高至1 sps。  相似文献   

Relationship between Cd and PO4 in the Subtropical Sea near the Ryukyu Islands     

Kazuo Abe 《Journal of Oceanography》2002,58(4):577-588

The relationship between dissolved cadmium (Cd) and phosphate (PO₄) was examined at three stations in the subtropical area near the Ryukyu Islands in May 1999. Preformed PO₄ was obtained using the Redfield ratio in order to separate the surface water and the other layers in this study area. Almost 0 μM (−0.043 μM to 0.094 μM) was estimated in the layers above 300 m and 250 m at Sts. 1 and 3 and at St. 2, respectively. Up to these depths, water was considered to be uniform, and these layers were defined as the surface water in this study area. In the surface water, the slopes of the regression lines of the Cd-PO₄ plot were 0.162, 0.156, and 0.226 (nM/μM) at Sts. 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and these values were much closer to the estimated regenerated ratio of Cd to PO₄ from the Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU)-Cd/PO₄ plots, which was 0.197 (nM/μM) in this study area. Below surface layers, the slopes of the Cd-PO₄ plot changed to 0.371, 0.352, and 0.362 (nM//μM) at Sts. 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In the relationships between Cd and PO₄, clear deviations or kinks were observed at three stations at a PO₄ concentration of approximately 0.2 μM in the plot, which was attributable to the discontinuity of surface water and the other layers across the North Pacific subtropical mode water. In studies of the interaction between surface water and biogenic particles concerning the Cd/PO₄ ratio, separate analyses of seawater (surface water and the other layers) should be carried out to obtain the individual surface water ratio because the Cd/PO₄ ratio in the surface water is expected to differ from that of the underlying water. Furthermore, the biological fractionation of these constituents is based on the surface water ratio. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献